Today, Congressman Ben Cline (R-VA) introduced the No Bias in the Baseline Act to address fiscal distortions embedded in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline projections. This legislation aims to provide Congress with tools to make informed financial decisions and eliminate biases favoring higher spending.
“It is essential that Congress is provided with the resources needed to make informed financial choices and get our nation back on a sound, fiscal path,” Rep. Cline said. “The Congressional Budget Office should empower Members by offering tools that facilitate wise decision-making, and current law prevents them from doing so. Our legislation seeks to arm Congress with the necessary resources for precision and prudence in budget deliberations, with a steadfast commitment to prioritizing the needs of the American people.”
Paul Winfree, President & CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC), commented, “Representative Cline and Senator Braun’s No Bias in the Baseline Act is an important proposal that highlights the distortions embedded in the CBO’s baseline that push spending higher and hide the true cost of legislation. Transparency is key. Congress should remove the baseline bias.”
If enacted, this bill would:
1. Restore Decision Making Back to Congress: The bill challenges assumptions baked into CBO’s baseline by law, which presume continued increases in discretionary spending aligned with Biden’s inflationary agenda. It also addresses statutory presumptions about continuing programs over $50 million, using debt for insolvent trust funds, and renewing excise taxes at current rates. Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) introduced companion legislation in the Senate.
2. Remove Spending Biases from the Baseline: The bill aims to ensure future budget negotiations reflect current law without starting from an inflated point.
3. Realistically Score Legislation: By using a Current Law Baseline for scoring, it seeks to prevent automatic pricing of expensive programs beyond their expiration dates.
The full text of the bill can be read here.
Background information reveals that CBO incorporates statutory assumptions into their baseline projections deviating from what should be under current law. Approximately 25 percent of spending in this baseline includes:
– Discretionary: $18 trillion for appropriations not yet enacted
– Trust Fund Programs: $1 trillion for programs funded by soon-to-be-exhausted trust funds
– Mandatory Programs that Expire: $1.8 trillion for mandatory spending programs set to expire
– Expiring Trust Fund Taxes: $386 billion in revenues set to expire
– Net Interest: $3.2 trillion resulting from these assumptions
In response to a Question For the Record submitted by Rep. Cline following a CBO hearing earlier this year, CBO acknowledged these assumptions distort both revenues and outlays into future years and noted some specific distortions in a budget alternative uploaded on May 8th.
